The goal of this course is understand the time evolution of the most relevant economic time series (GNP, Unemployment, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, financial asset prices, etc.) and the analysis of the dynamic causal relationships existing among those variables in order to perform forecasts and economic policy analysis.
To achieve this goal, the student must acquire knowledge, abilities (specific and general) and attitudes.
Knowledge: At the end of the course the student will be able to:
- Construct adequate models to obtain forecasts
- Construct adequate models to analyze causal relationships between economic variables
- To analyze the growth of economic variables and their long-term relationship.
In term of concrete questions, the student will learn to answer in a quantitative and synthetic way, via an empirical project, to questions of this type:
- How interest rates affect economic growth, employment level, prices, etc.?
- How economic growth affects C02 levels, and those affect temperature?
- Is it possible to forecast the returns of financial assets?
- Isolate and analyze the main characteristics of the evolution of economic data.
- Distinguish different types of data and the components of a time series.
- Build appropriate models for testing economic hypotheses and forecasting.
- Evaluate and criticize different approaches for dealing with an applied problem.
- Solve complex problems.
- Discrimination of relevant information contained in economic data on a problem.
- Relate different description measures of data and diagnostics on the validity of a model.
- Flexibility on the use of a model for different goals.
- Use of computer packages of econometric modeling.
- Analysis and synthesis.
- Group work.
- Oral, written and graphical communication skills.
- Critic attitude on solutions and models provided by alternative analysts.
- Constructive attitude based on partial information and approaches.